Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has proven she is a force to be reckoned with on the debate stage. Her poise and message discipline have won the slow, approving nods of Republican strategists, many of whom are declaring her the “winner” of last week’s primary debate.
But with front-runner and former president Donald Trump leading the race by 33.2 percentage points, is there any hope for the Haley campaign to cause an upset? To maximize her chances, she needs to campaign hard in Iowa, highlight her foreign policy experience, and show that she is the best bet to beat Biden in the general election.
Things are looking up for Nikki Haley. Polling before and after last week’s debate suggests that Republican voters like her the more they see her on stage. She is now second in some New Hampshire polls, coinciding with her impressive performances at the debates. For all of the Republican challengers, of course, there are huge hurdles to earn the GOP nomination. They are running against a sort-of-incumbent former president who the media cannot stop talking about, a man whose supporters have been enthusiastically flying “Trump 2024” flags since 2020.
But if 2016 taught us anything, it is that things can change very rapidly in politics. Here are a few things Haley can do to give herself the best shot at victory:
Pound the pavement in Iowa. Her success in the short term will depend on her on-the-ground campaigning, especially in Iowa, where voting will take place in neighborhood caucus meetings. Iowa is known for surprising pollsters with election night upsets, and Haley does not need to win all of the delegates, just enough to build momentum and signal to voters of future primaries that she is a serious contender for the presidency.
Iowans tend to care more about a candidate’s credibility as a conservative than their ability to appeal to moderates and independents. Haley is a distant third in most Iowa polls, and she will not be able to “out-conservative” both Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But while she will not win over hardcore MAGA voters, she can focus her campaigning on convincing the 79 percent of Iowans who are open to a candidate besides Trump.
Draw on her foreign policy experience. Foreign policy is not a top priority for Republicans these days, but they do care that a candidate is qualified for office, and sounding smart on the issues is a part of that. Thanks to her time as United States ambassador to the United Nations, Haley’s foreign policy chops tend to speak for themselves.
When she talks about foreign policy, Haley sounds credible and competent – someone you want to hand the nuclear football to. No one else in this race can do that – not even Trump, despite his four years of actually being president of the United States.
Prove she can win. Republicans want to beat President Joe Biden next year, and the former South Carolina governor may be the best candidate to accomplish this. Conservative voters also want someone who will fight for them in Washington, a candidate who has the wits and the stamina to slam the brakes on inflation, immigration, and a political culture of “wokeness.”
Haley needs to convince voters that she is conservatism’s best advocate, capable of articulating and defending Republicans’ vision in the face of a media and political culture they feel is rigged against them. While some MAGA die-hards will prefer a no-holds-barred style of politics, Haley can provide a less sloppy, more persuasive style, as she has done in spats with Vivek Ramaswamy in the last two debates.
There is still a lot of ball left to play. It is easy to look at early poll numbers and become fatalistic about Republican challengers, but with a sound strategy, Nikki Haley could position herself well enough to have a fighting chance to win the nomination.
Andrew Sandstrom is a Young Voices contributor and a political consultant based in Ogden, Utah. This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.
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