The national media is trying to suggest that President Joe Biden can win Florida. Democrats and the press have several reasons for suggesting that Florida is a battleground state.
1. Recent polling shows the race within about five points after Trump led earlier in the year by about nine points.
2. While the state republican party is now on solid ground with effective, experienced leadership, it has had to recover from the past chairman’s controversies.
3. The state democratic party filed a candidate in every legislative race.
4. There are abortion and marijuana measures on the ballot.
5. Robert F. Kennedy will appear on the ballot in Florida.
6. Sen. Rick Scott’s reelection race had a fraudulent poll that showed his Democratic opponent gaining ground.
But let’s unpack the talking points.
1. Joe Biden is still losing Florida by the most liberal polls by about six points. Barring a major gaffe with national implications by Trump, it will cost at least $10-$20 million per point. Does Biden want to spend $75-$100 million to turn Florida into a coin flip? This simply isn’t going to happen.
2. This one is really inside baseball. The Republican party in Florida is now on solid ground and will remain so for the general election. Another myth dispelled.
3. This one is the most ridiculous of them all. The fact that Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried filed a Democrat in every district will only drive more GOP voters to the polls. Remember the #1 rule of politics? All politics are local. This isn’t an illusion, but a major F-Up by the chairwoman who won one statewide race because she got lucky. Luck does not equal political experience and it shows that she marginalized her opportunity for victory in November for a press release in June. Fried brags this is the first time in 30 years that Democrats have filed someone in every legislative race, which, funny enough, is when Democrats lost the majority for good.
4. If the turnout is naturally low, these measures could change the turnout model into one that is more favorable for democrats, but one is gaining no traction and the other probably doesn’t increase turnout because those are folks who are “baked into” polling already.
5. Yes, Robert F. Kennedy seems to be taking more votes from the likely winner of all states. Does he put Florida in play? Probably not. Does he put Virginia and Minnesota in play? This could be slightly more likely, and if it does, Biden loses. That’s why Democrats are hypocritically trying to deny him ballot access in states where Biden is leading.
6. Democrats are cheering about a poll that shows Sen. Rick Scott’s opponent with two points. Not one legitimate pundit called this poll legitimate, not one. This one is a belly laugh. Again, this race comes down to economics, and if Trump is up five, Scott is up 10; if that’s the case, democrats would have to spend $100 million to get in a coin flip with Sen. Scott. Again, why would the national party spend $100 million to be in a coin flip against an incumbent when they have their own incumbents to protect?
So, yes, the national media is trying to sell advertising by getting people to click on stories that show the state and these races tightening, but neither the environment nor the economics would suggest that this will happen. Democrats would have to be flawless, and Democratic Chair Nikki Fried already made a fatal mistake of feeding her own ego by filing Democrats in ruby red districts, ensuring Democrats’ statewide demise in Florida in November.
Jamie Miller’s site is ReasonableArguments.com
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