By Dustin McElreath
It’s a crazy thought but let me explain.
As many of us have realized, pretty much no one stood a chance running against an indicted Trump.
Obvious political persecution rallied Trump’s base & much of the GOP like nothing else. It’s juicy drama that gets ears & eyeballs, so the media & conservative influencers ate it up.
And MOST of the electorate falls in line with whatever media personality or influencer they follow.
And this dynamic created a circular cycle of Trump, Trump, Trump. His legal battles dominated headline after headline. He received tens of millions of dollars’ worth of free publicity, much of it outright promotion. Not even the best governor in the nation could compete with that. And DeSantis is a smart guy, perhaps he saw the writing on the wall & wisely suspended his campaign.
I say wisely because “suspended” does not mean cancelled. He’s still on most state ballots & he’s still technically in the running if something happens to Trump’s candidacy before the Republican National Convention.
Here’s the crazy part, this might be a long shot, or maybe not, but there’s plenty that could happen to Trump’s candidacy before the GOP Convention in July.
Three trials are currently scheduled to begin this Spring, with at least 2 of them likely to conclude by June, a month before the GOP Convention.
All it takes is one conviction relating to the election and the 14th Amendment ballot challenges will be revived in force.
And that’s assuming they fail now. Which they might not.
Here’s just a few ways Trump could realistically be taken out of the running for President.
- He’s convicted of multiple felonies & the GOP has a contested convention over nominating a convicted felon.
- He takes a plea deal & agrees to drop out to avoid jail time.
- 14th Amendment Challenges keep him off the ballot in ANY states he needs to win… could happen now or this summer after convictions.
- His health fails. He is nearly 80, overweight, & under tremendous stress.
I want to be super clear. I believe to my core that DeSantis is by far the better choice for President, but I do NOT WISH any of these things on Trump.
They are just real possibilities, just like Trump’s media support after his indictments, it just is the way it is.
But consider this, if any of these very real possibilities become reality, what happens next?
Those delegates would become “uncommitted” & varying GOP & state rules determine who they could go to.
But one major rule is that in order for a candidate to be a contender for the nomination, he or she would need the majority commitment of at least five states.
More than likely, that boils down to DeSantis and Haley. Unless something changes dramatically between now & then, no one else in this election has even close to enough support to get the backing of five states.
And while most of the delegates go with their state majority to a candidate, some are “unbound”, meaning they can literally choose anyone they want.
The question is, where would those unbound Trump delegates go? To DeSantis or Haley?
Presumably they’d go to whichever candidate most aligns with Trump.
And on policy, that’s DeSantis. Either way, in poll after poll, DeSantis is the voters predominant 2nd choice behind Trump, so he would easily garner most of that support.
And all of that is only possible because he suspended his campaign & endorsed Trump, entering back into good graces with MAGA.
So if any of the situations above knock Trump out of the race, DeSantis is now the primary backup plan for most of the GOP.
And that’s how DeSantis could still be the GOP nominee.
Might not happen. But it could.
Dustin McElreath Is a freelance investigative researcher
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