Going into Florida’s 2024 Primary Election, registered Republicans were leading Democrats in the early and mail-in voting turnout.
As of last Friday morning, out of 13.5 million voters, around 1.6 million had either early voted at a precinct or by mail-in absentee. That included 733,000 from Republicans and 515,000 from Democrats.
Surprisingly, there has been a slight uptick among Republicans this primary after former President Donald Trump told them absentee ballots couldn’t be trusted.
In 2020 Democrats outperformed Republicans in the mail-in ballot by 10% in 2020 and by 5% in 2022.
“Over years past, yes, mail-in votes have significantly dropped from republican voters, but we have seen an increased somewhat this year,” said Duval County Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland.
On the surface, the returns are encouraging for the GOP, but state elections numbers show that more Democrats have requested absentee ballots but have yet to return them. Does this mean they could show up to vote in person on Tuesday?
Voting in person at early voting sites is seen as having mixed numbers from both sides.
In blue counties like Duval, Alachua Orange, and Broward, there are more Democrats showing up to early voting sites than Republicans. But other Democratic-led counties tell a different story. In Osceola County, more Republican voters have shown up more than Democrats. Hillsborough shows over a 2,000-vote advantage among Republicans compared to Democrats.
In Miami-Dade, by a 10,000-vote margin, GOP voters are outperforming the Democrats in their own backyard.
“The reason why you could be seeing a larger share of voter turnout in the primaries is because that race locally maybe decides the outcome of the election for that year, not November,” Political Strategist Jamie Miller said.
Miller cautions voters and says don’t be fooled. A primary turnout (large or small) doesn’t necessarily indicate a bigger or smaller win for a certain in November.
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