Florida TaxWatch has just released its economic outlook for the state over the next few years.
Several areas of TaxWatch’s usual focus are featured in their projections. Those areas include:
Population and Net Migration.
Florida’s population is projected to increase by about 1.4 million people (from 23.4 million to 24.8 million) from 2025 to 2030. Although the state’s overall population is projected to continue to increase, the number of people moving to Florida each day is projected to decrease from 972 in 2024 to 789 in 2030. This reflects a shift in the balance between people moving into Florida and people moving out of Florida. The current growth rate of the population is 1.6 percent and is projected to decrease to 1.1 percent by the end of 2030. As Florida’s net migration decreases from 972 new residents each day to 891 over the next year (a negative 8.3 percent growth rate), the population will continue to increase, but at a decreasing rate. Top destinations for those leaving Florida are either Georgia, Texas, Tennessee or North Carolina, states with no personal income tax and/or a lower cost of living than Florida.
Employment
The number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from almost 10.0 million in 2024 to 10.9 million in 2030. During this same period, Florida’s unemployment rate is projected to increase from 3.4 percent in 2024, slowly, to 4.1 percent in 2030. Unlike the 2024 Q4 forecast – where the unemployment rate was consistently increasing, this forecast shows an increase until 2027 and then a gradual decrease until 2030. The projected unemployment rate for 2025 as of Q1 2025 is 0.7 percentage points higher than reported in Q4 2024.
GDP and Income Growth
Florida had a real GDP growth rate of 3.6 percent in 2024; projected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2030. Comparing the difference in the growth rates of Florida’s GDP and real GDP, one can see that the difference is becoming smaller over time. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to increase until 2027, after which it is expected to decrease in the coming years.
Tourism
An impact study conducted by the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association in 2023 estimated 156.9 million visitors spent a record $131 billion, an average of $359 million per day. Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and generates $76.4 billion in employee wages. Thanks to tourism and the revenue tourism generates, every Florida household saves $1,910 a year on state and local taxes. Tourism is projected to increase through 2030. The growth rate of visitors in the state is expected to decline sharply in 2025, after which it will further decrease to zero before rising to 0.6 percent by 2030.
Overall, Florida’s economy is poised to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next six years, following a period of high economic growth over the past three years. Florida’s economic growth, as measured by real GDP, is expected to continue at a reduced rate through 2030. The number of new jobs available in Florida is projected to decline until 2027 before rising again. The unemployment rate follows the same pattern, increasing until 2027 before gradually decreasing. This can be, in part, attributed to the easing GDP of Florida after 2027.
Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion, which can be attributed in part to its abundance of natural amenities, low cost of living, and absence of personal income tax. Over the past several decades, the number of people moving to Florida has increased, while the number of people moving out of Florida has remained steady.
“This is the main reason why Florida TaxWatch is focused on workforce and housing affordability, quality health care, and a multi-year funding process for critical water infrastructure that will help sustain Florida’s successful growth,” said Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro
