Guest Op-Ed by Jamie Miller
The abortion proposal known as Amendment 4 could have a greater impact on this year’s election.
The theory is that Amendment 4 can increase participation in the 2024 election because those who support abortion will show up in droves despite there being a presidential election. While this could be the case, it probably doesn’t motivate enough people to change the statewide outcome.
This could drive turnout in a few pockets where very conservative candidates are running in light red or purple districts like U.S. House District 13 in Pinellas County. Some may hope it will also impact the reelection chances for Dist. 27 U.S. House member Maria Elvira Salazar.
Some may point to the 2022 U.S. House races and argue that abortion cost Republicans a “red wave.”
For those who suggest that Florida is now in play due to Amendment 4 being on the ballot, some should take caution. The race is likely to tighten, but the Biden campaign is unlikely to spend the $50-$100 million it will take for him to be competitive and not necessarily win.
That certainly doesn’t mean that Biden won’t bluff that he will spend millions in Florida that he would need to win, but he’ll take his money elsewhere when it matters.
Author
