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How Will Amendment 3 (Recreational Marijuana) Affect Turnout?

[Guest Opinion-Editorial Piece]

Amendment 3 is a proxy run for attorney John Morgan’s run for governor as a Democrat in 2026.

As most Florida political observers know, John Morgan is the owner of the behemoth trial attorney firm Morgan & Morgan. John Morgan was the financier for both the medical marijuana amendment and now the amendment for recreational use.

Currently, the recreational use amendment may not exceed the 60 percent necessary to win. It will take people who will fund its defeat to ensure that it doesn’t pass. Some people suggest that this amendment passes without much fanfare.

But, if Amendment 3 passes with high approval of the high 60s or low 70s percentage-wise in a presidential year, it will breathe life into John Morgan’s gubernatorial campaign, and that spells big trouble for Republicans in 2026.

It spells big trouble because Morgan has the name ID and financial resources to clear the primary field and immediately become the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor. If he’s the nominee, he will likely have enough power to determine the other Democrats for cabinet positions and ensure they don’t have primaries as well.

Republicans are speculated to have a large and potentially “bloody” primary with more people kicking the tires for governor since Jeb Bush won a “bloody” primary in 1994 only to lose the general election to Lawton Chiles.

Those who follow Florida history know there has been just one major party candidate who has a primary for a statewide office and defeated the other major party candidate who had no primary, Katherine Harris, in 1998 when she won the Florida Secretary of State position against Karen Gievers.

If this amendment changes turnout in 2024 in any way, it could be a harbinger for the 2026 election, which will begin immediately after voting ends this November.

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