Even though it’s five years away, the 2030 census may show more residents from blue states are moving to Florida and Texas, where the Republican majorities could maintain or even increase their control, and this is becoming a red flag to Democrats.
Two groups, one favoring Democrats and the other favoring Republicans, agree the next census will hurt Democrats.
The left-leaning Brennan Center believes states run by Democrats in 2024 may lose 12 seats in the next census, and the more conservative American Redistricting Project concurs with those numbers.
“At the end of the day, Democrats have to be able to win in the South or compete in the South” if they want to control the levers of government; otherwise, it’s an uphill battle every time, says Michael Li, Benior Counsel with the Brennan Center for Justice.
Not only states like California, Illinois, and New York are getting smaller in population, but Democrats must be worried after losing Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan in 2024, which is known as the “blue wall.”.
“If current trends hold through the 2030 census, states that voted for Vice President Kamala Harris will lose around a dozen House seats — and Electoral College votes — to states that voted for President-elect Donald Trump. The Democratic path to 270 Electoral College votes, the minimum needed to win the presidency, will get much narrower,” said the Brenna Centers analysis.
Data from the Brennan Center also shows more problems for Democrats in blue states.
Over the last two years, with the population changes following the COVID pandemic, the South (including Florida) has seen an increase in growth from the Northeast and Midwest, where more people are looking to live around warmer climates, cheaper housing, lower taxes, and plentiful jobs.
The Brennan Center says that this population move will increase Republicans’ stronghold with more seats on the Congressional level.
Do Democrats still have a chance in some southern states?
“It depends” says Florida GOP strategist Jamie Miller. Miller’s articles on the states and policies that Democrats lost in the 2024 election should be a wake-up call for Democrats in 2026.
Miller states that Democrats should be concerned in three southern states that Trump won: Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. The Two U.S. Senate seats in Georgia are controlled by Democrats and Miller says this could be a golden opportunity for Republicans to pick up in 2026.
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