A new statewide survey conducted by Political Matrix / The Listener Group among 973 registered Republican likely primary voters, found the electorate still largely undecided on Florida’s governor’s race, communicating an apathy in the Republican base that could benefit the front-runner Donalds who clearly has higher name ID due to a relentless barrage of tv ads that includes President Trump’s endorsement.
However, Donalds topped out in the initial uninformed ballot at 29%, a number that reveals vulnerability for a late charge by a challenger.
Of those challengers, Paul Renner seems to be the best positioned. Solidly in second place, a full 14% of the voters view him as the most conservative and viable of the remaining candidates. His record as a Navy Veteran, former prosecutor, and key architect of Governor Ron DeSantis’ conservative agenda resonates powerfully with voters.
“Byron Donalds is the front-runner; there is absolutely no doubt about that,” said Greg Fink, Principal of Palafox Productions and Promotions, Inc. and Political Matrix / The Listener Group. “But what our respondents indicate is that there is more than ample room for someone else to make a move, and Paul Renner is the candidate best positioned to do so.”
Key findings from the survey include:
– The Republican primary for governor remains highly fluid and undecided. Even when voters were forced to choose among the leading candidates, 49% remained undecided.
– Byron Donalds currently leads, and he is also winning big in the all-important SW Florida region.
– Paul Renner is winning his home turf in NE Florida and is performing very well in the Panhandle.
– Jay Collins, Paul Renner, and Byron Donalds are clustered in the Tampa Bay market with Donalds having the edge.
– James Fishback is currently polling less than the margin of error and is virtually unknown to Republican voters.
The poll also found that an endorsement from Governor Ron DeSantis would make 62% of voters more likely to support his chosen candidate — underscoring the continued influence of the governor’s brand in the Republican primary electorate. That actually stands about as strong as President Trump’s impact from an endorsement at about 65% more likely to support his chosen candidate.
“President Trump remains one of the biggest factors in primary politics,” Fink states. “However, candidates who can clearly communicate their record of service and conservative results have a real shot to be competitive. Florida is a state with a very late primary, and there are countless examples of significant movement in the last 5 to 6 weeks before the election.”
The survey was conducted using live telephone interviews among registered Republican likely primary voters. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3.14% at the 95% confidence level.
