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New Poll Shows Many Voters Think New Civil War is Likely by 2029

Political polarization continues to surface in data from major pollsters across the country. The latest example comes from Rasmussen Reports’ most recent national survey. Rasmussen shared results that showed that 41% of “Likely U.S. Voters” believe the United States is likely to experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, including 16% who consider such a scenario Very Likely.

Notable data points from the survey include:

  • 54% of Republicans, 35% of Democrats and 32% of voters not affiliated with either major party consider it at least somewhat likely that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years.
  • 37% said another civil war is more likely to happen if President Joe Biden wins this year’s election.
  • 30% said the victor of this year’s election will not make much difference in the likelihood of a civil war.
  • 25% said another civil war is more likely if former President Donald Trump wins. 
  • 56% of Republicans consider another civil war more likely if Biden wins in November, a view shared by 26% of Democrats and 28% of unaffiliated voters.
  • 37% of Democrats, 15% of Republicans, and 22% of unaffiliated voters think a second civil war is more likely if Trump wins this year’s election.
  • 59% of those who voted for Trump in 2020 believe a second civil war is more likely if Biden wins this year’s election.
  • 53% of those who voted for Trump in 2020 think it’s at least somewhat likely that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, compared to 28% of Biden voters. 
  • 51% of Hispanics believe a second civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next five years. 
  • 46% of black voters believe a second civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next five years. 
  • 39% of whites believe a second civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next five years.  , 29% of other minorities believe a second civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next five years. 
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