“It’s the economy, Stupid!”
That famous tagline invoked during the Bill Clinton campaign for the presidency is still true today.
It is a given fact that President Donald Trump was reelected because Americans have fond economic memories of his first term in office, and polling consistently buttresses that point.
During the 2024 campaign, President Trump promised an assault on free trade and tariffs, an issue that both Democratic and Republican presidents for whom have preceded him have advocated.
Trump brought “tariffs” into the common vernacular even though most Americans did not really understand what that meant.
We all knew what free trade meant, it meant that the taxation on imported and exported goods would be reciprocal and the same with that country. For most of us, we took that to be the case to begin with.
Only bespectacled, nerdy economists knew the real truth, as most of us do not think about why a product from another country is a certain price. If we want it bad enough, we will pay the price.
However, in a global economy, and with ever-rising budget deficits and enormous trade deficits with most countries, it became readily apparent to President Trump that the economic world order that has existed for more than three-quarters of a century was weighing on America’s chance to “be great again.”
Typically, when a President is reelected, they are considered a lame duck, complicated by the fact that they cannot be elected again. Thus, their aspirations become limited to what they believe they can accomplish.
However, history was rewritten for the first time in 128 years when President Grover Cleveland was elected to non-consecutive terms in office, a first in our country’s history.
President Trump, interestingly, has a couple of similarities with what Democratic President Cleveland championed, including both using his presidential power to reduce the size of the federal government and both firing presidential appointees without Senate confirmation.
They also shared a belief in the power of tariffs, though for varied reasons. Democrats and President Cleveland wanted to reduce tariffs from around 47% to about 40%, while Republicans generally wanted to maintain high tariffs to protect Americans’ nascent industrial revolution.
Though legislation to lower tariffs was ultimately defeated, it did play a significant role in the 1888 election when President Cleveland lost to Republican Benjamin Harrison, and again in the 1892 election when Cleveland ran against Harrison and won.
This tariff background is important to highlight, while not an issue of great concern in the intervening years, they are again a topic that Democratic and Republican presidents have tussled with and been on both sides of.
While no one knew how this tariff fight would roll out, President Trump has thrown caution to the wind, as is his modus operandi, to set the playing field appropriately.
Democrats have belittled the President on this issue and have warned about the consequences for all Americans of the cost of everyday imported goods.
Some Republicans are also genuinely concerned about the impacts of tariffs on Americans and have expressed grave reservations.
The good news is that every country, even China, eventually came to the table to negotiate their rate and though no final decisions have yet been made, the bargaining is only going to get tougher before there is a final resolution.
The bad news is that in the interim, the stock market is roiling along with the bond market, and everyone’s 401(k)’s are up in the air.
Trump has educated us all on why we need free trade to help America grow, to bring jobs back to our country, and to revitalize our once-dominant manufacturing base so we can compete equally.
The fact that few if any American automobiles, SUVs, and trucks are sold in Europe, while European vehicles are all over our roadways, is just one example of unequal trade hurdles. This demands investigation and means that European leaders must negotiate seriously with us unless they want reciprocal tariffs on their vehicles, which the President has implemented.
China is another whole story. This low-cost, some say cheap, manufacturing juggernaut is flooding the world with its products while keeping its own domestic market free from foreign goods competition unless they are manufactured there.
Other southeastern Asian nations like Vietnam and India have since become substitute manufacturing hubs to compete, and in some instances to get around high tariffs imposed by Trump on China.
But Trump’s plan on tariffs is having its desired effect. Countries are coming to the table, and with time, will agree to mutually beneficial customs taxes on goods imported and exported.
Whether Trump will be successful or not is only a matter of time, as his self-imposed deadline of July 8th is just around the corner.
I believe that Trump will win primarily because he is an expert negotiator, other countries want to sell their products here, and we want to export our goods to other countries, so we will all have an incentive to come to the table.
If Trump is not successful, then he dooms other Republicans who have supported his tariff battles in future election campaigns.
As the president’s team gets down to the nitty-gritty, in the details and nuances of global taxation policy, we will soon know what the outcome will be and what impact it will have for Americans.
Elections are about which Party can provide the “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” promised in our Declaration of Independence.
We are industrious people who appreciate that one can attain the American dream if they keep their head down, be persistent, honest, and fair with others, and keep faith in our country’s promise.
An economy that works for everyone is the best way to attain that goal.
President Trump is willing to risk his legacy to deliver an economy that helps us all.
While many will say that he is also risking our country’s reputation and economy, and that may very well be true, our country has always been a beacon for democracy and a vibrant, private enterprise system.
Free trade, without artificial impediments and unequal taxation, is the economic goal that we must reach if we are to compete in a world that finds it easier to create roadblocks to protect their own country than to try to allow goods and services to flow freely.
President Trump is right to try and radically change the world economic order, as it must change as time evolves, or it will come crashing down for everyone.
Barney Bishop III is a former executive director of the Florida Democratic Party, and a former CEO of Associated Industries of Florida, known as “The Voice of Florida Business.” He is now a registered Republican, and he is the CEO of Barney Bishop Consulting LLC, a strategic public affairs firm based in Tallahassee. He can be reached at Barney@BarneyBishop.com
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