South Dakota never tips the scales: Reliably Republican in every presidential election since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide, it’s not much of a factor in Republican primaries either. The state’s presidential primary comes toward the end of the primary cycle, and with a population of less than 1 million, subsequent competition for its three electoral college votes during the general election isn’t expected to be steep.
But Donald Trump will still travel to Rapid City in September, leaving the campaign trail to attend the South Dakota Republican Party’s “Monumental Leaders Rally.”
What’s the draw, then, for the GOP frontrunner? Sources inside and outside the governor’s mansion tell RealClearPolitics the answer is Kristi Noem. The governor has developed close ties with Trump, courting him both during and after his time in office, a friendship that could blossom into an official partnership should Trump win the nomination and need a running mate.
South Dakota GOP Chairman John Wiik approached the Trump campaign with an invitation in early July after postponing the initial event until after the summer ended. Wiik had publicly teased the fact that the party secured for their keynote speaker “a major presidential candidate” but declined to offer any details during a brief interview. A spokesman for the former president told RCP the campaign was unaware of any plans to travel to South Dakota.
The Dakota Scout broke the news the next day that Trump would headline the event. According to sources with direct knowledge of the conversations, Noem followed up with Trump personally after Wiik extended the invitation and urged him to accept.
According to a spokesman for the governor, Noem often dials the former president. From the moment she won office in 2018, she began working behind the scenes to ensure that President Trump would attend a Fourth of July celebration in 2020 at the foot of Mount Rushmore. After he made the trip to the Black Hills, rumors swirled that Trump was considering replacing then-Vice President Mike Pence with the former pageant queen from Watertown.
Setting off speculation: a present Noem gave Trump. The New York Times reported that the governor gifted the president a four-foot replica of Mount Rushmore with a fifth presidential likeness: his own.
Nothing came of those rumors, however, and with Pence remaining his running mate, Trump lost the 2020 election. Since then, however, Noem has nurtured her ties to the former president. A spokesman for the governor told RCP that their conversations are “numerous and frequent.” An individual with direct knowledge of those talks, who was not authorized to speak on the record, told RCP that the two have discussed Noem joining the ticket with Trump in 2024.
For a governor from such a small state, Noem has an oversized national profile. She is a regular guest on Fox News, and as others jump into the race for the nomination, she has launched a nationwide workforce recruitment campaign to bring employees into the state. She stars in each spot.
Noem delighted the Trump campaign when she told a local radio station that she didn’t “see a path to victory for anybody else with him in the race.” All the same, she added, “I think people should saddle up – it could be a roller coaster of a presidential race.”
A source with direct knowledge of the governor’s thinking speculated that when Noem takes Trump’s hand and welcomes him to the stage in South Dakota in September, “It’ll look like a presidential ticket.” The Trump campaign did not return requests for comment.
Trump set off fresh speculation about whom he might pick as his number two if he wins the nomination when he posted on Truth Social Monday that he’d be watching the GOP presidential primary debate as a kind of talent scout. “Let them debate so I can see who I MIGHT consider for Vice President,” he wrote. Trump is not expected to be on stage at that contest slated for Aug. 23 in Milwaukee.
Whether any of them want to share a forum with him in South Dakota is unknown, but Wiik told RCP after news broke that Trump would be attending the event, “Anybody who wants to attend is welcome.” The South Dakota GOP chairman left no doubt who he sees as the headliner, however. He gushed that “the number one polling presidential candidate is coming here, even though we are a small, late primary population.”
A prominent Republican operative from South Dakota was not surprised by the Trump invitation and wasn’t entirely complimentary either. “Bringing Trump here has something to do with Noem wanting to be VP or her trying to find relevance,” the operative told RCP, speculating that the governor might settle for a position in Trump’s cabinet or perhaps a cable news perch after her term ends. “Her star is fading, and she is just trying to make her star a little shinier while she can.”
Trump might have other reasons for going west. Admission costs $25 for the South Dakota dinner, and the appearance could be an emerging model for how to endear the candidate to local GOP brass. Tickets are going fast, and the proceeds go directly to the state party.
Flying to Rapid City has another benefit for Trump. Sens. John Thune and Mike Rounds have both endorsed Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina. Accepting an invitation in their home state gives the former president an opportunity to deliver an implicit rebuke in their backyard.
This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.
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