The recent title of a poll for the Florida Republican primary read, “Speaker Paul Renner Surges, Fishback Rises Despite Ballot Challenge, Collins Collapses; Donalds Sees Little Movement Despite Trump Endorsement.”
The analysis of 2 statewide surveys conducted by Political Matrix, a division of Palafox Productions and Promotions, shows Renner posted the strongest gains among the established candidates, and James Fishback experienced an increase despite recent temporary uncertainty of his ballot status. Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins experienced the sharpest decline, and Byron Donalds remained relatively steady, despite receiving President Trump’s endorsement.
Their summary did not show any percentage for candidate Bobby Williams, a humanitarian who leads a nonprofit rescue organization. Williams has developed a passionate online following on a comparatively small budget against the rest of the GOP field.
The breakdown of each candidate’s polling numbers looks like this:
The latest statewide benchmark survey places Byron Donalds at 32.2%, with Speaker Paul Renner in second place at 18.8%, James Fishback at 13.1%, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins at 2.2%, while 31.6% remain undecided.
“This Republican nomination contest remains very much in play,” said Greg Fink, CEO of Political Matrix. “The defining story in this race is momentum.”
Fishback increased his standing from 2.0% in the June statewide survey to 13.1%in the July benchmark survey.
Compared to the June statewide survey, Renner increased from 14.0% to 18.8%, continuing to build momentum within the Republican electorate and further establishing himself as the leading alternative in the Republican primary.
The results also revealed that Collins’ standing deteriorated significantly between the two statewide surveys. Collins measured 11.0% in the June survey but stood at just 2.2% in the July benchmark survey, reflecting a dramatic decline in his position within the Republican primary electorate over the period between the two studies.
Congressman Donalds moved from 29.0% in the June statewide survey to 32.2% in the July survey—an increase of just 3.2 percentage points.
The July benchmark survey was conducted July 21–23, 2026, among 1,020 likely Florida Republican primary voters using a blended methodology of live-operator telephone interviewing and secure online surveying. The survey carries an approximate margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
