Most voters believe the U.S. economy has declined over the past year, and economic concerns are expected to play a major role in this fall’s congressional elections, according to Rasmussen Reports.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey found that 58% of likely U.S. voters say the economy has gotten worse in the past year. Just 17% say the economy has improved, while 21% believe it has stayed about the same.
The survey also found continued pessimism about the country’s overall direction. Thirty-six percent of likely voters say the country is heading in the right direction, while 58% say it is on the wrong track. By comparison, one year ago, 48% said the United States was heading in the right direction, while 46% said it was on the wrong track.
Voters are nearly evenly divided over which party they trust more to handle the economy. Forty-three percent said they trust Democrats more on the issue, while 42% said they trust Republicans more. Another 15% were undecided. In January, Republicans held a narrow two-point advantage on the question, 46% to 44%.
The economy is also shaping up as a major issue in the midterm elections. Rasmussen Reports found that 53% of likely voters say the economy will be the most important issue in deciding their vote in this fall’s congressional elections. Thirty-seven percent said another issue will be more important, while 10% were not sure.
Among voters who said the economy will be their top issue in November, 48% said they trust Democrats more to handle it.
Partisan divisions remain sharp. Eighty-three percent of Democrats said they trust their own party more to handle the economy, while 80% of Republicans said they trust the GOP more. Among unaffiliated voters, 36% said they trust Republicans more, 32% said they trust Democrats more, and 32% were unsure.
Views of the economy also differ significantly by party. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans said the economy has gotten better in the past year, compared to 9% of Democrats and 11% of unaffiliated voters. Meanwhile, 79% of Democrats said the economy has gotten worse, along with 34% of Republicans and 60% of unaffiliated voters.
The survey found that economic concerns cut across party lines, with 56% of Democrats, 54% of Republicans and 48% of unaffiliated voters saying the economy will be the most important issue in their congressional vote.
There is also a gender gap in how voters view the economy and party trust. Rasmussen Reports found that 63% of women voters say the economy has gotten worse over the past year, compared to 53% of men. Women trust Democrats more on the economy by a 47% to 37% margin, while men trust Republicans more by a 48% to 39% margin.
Among racial and ethnic groups, 42% of white voters, 61% of Black voters, 38% of Hispanic voters and 28% of other minority voters said they trust Democrats more to handle the economy. By contrast, 45% of white voters, 20% of Black voters, 42% of Hispanic voters and 38% of other minority voters said they trust Republicans more.
Rasmussen Reports said Black voters were the most likely to say the economy has gotten worse over the past year. Voters in their 40s were the most likely to say the economy will be the most important issue in the midterm elections, while voters ages 50 to 64 were the most likely to trust Republicans to handle the economy.
Income also played a role in voter attitudes. Voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year were the most likely to say the economy will be the top issue in the fall elections. Voters earning more than $200,000 a year were the most likely to trust Democrats to handle the economy.
The survey also showed a sharp split among 2024 presidential voters. Among those who voted for Kamala Harris, 86% said the economy has gotten worse over the past year. Among Donald Trump voters, 29% agreed.
The economic findings come as Rasmussen Reports also found slippage in other measures related to President Trump. The polling firm reported that voter approval for the Iran war has fallen by 12 points in less than three months, even as a majority support reported terms for a peace agreement. Rasmussen Reports also said Trump’s monthly job approval rating was 43% in May, down one point from April, while 56% disapproved of his performance, up two points from the previous month.
