In a poll conducted by the University of North Florida (UNF), former President Donald Trump is the clear favorite to win the Sunshine State. The university’s Public Opinion Research Lab asked 977 likely Florida voters their choice for President, U.S. Senate, and other policy issues.
The UNF poll has Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 percentage points, while Senator Rick Scott’s lead over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell within the margin of error at three points. UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab asked 977 likely Florida voters their choice for President, U.S. Senate and other policy issues.
Fifty-three percent of the voters surveyed indicated a vote for Trump, while Harris gained 43 percent, while two percent of voters saying they would vote for another candidate. In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican Rick Scott .
“At just three percentage points, Rick Scott’s lead is significantly narrower than Trump’s, similar to what we saw back in July,” UNF Public Opinion Research Lab Director Michael Binder said. “Much like the rest of the country, Trump is running notably ahead of senate candidates in the same state.”
In addition to federal offices, respondents were also asked how they would vote on three of the six proposed Florida constitutional amendments on the 2024 ballot. Please see the crosstabs below for the full text of the ballot summaries.
First, respondents were asked whether they would vote yes or no on Amendment 1, titled “Partisan Election of Members of District School Boards.” Forty-one percent said they would vote “yes,” while 30% said “no,” and another 30% said they did not know. “While more people support the partisan school board amendment than oppose, it still falls far short of the 60% it needs to pass,” Binder said. “The large number of folks who said they don’t know may be partially due to the confusing legal language, especially when read over the phone, more than people being truly undecided on the issue,” he added.
On Amendment 3, “Adult Personal Use of Marijuana,” earned 66% indicating a vote of “yes,” compared to 32% who said they would vote “no,” and 8% who said they don’t
know. Support for this amendment has increased by two percentage points since the last PORL statewide poll in July of this year, in which 64% of likely voters indicated a vote of “yes.”
“After years of polling on marijuana in Florida, both medical and recreational, it is clear that the majority is in favor of legalization,” noted Binder. “Closing in on election day, despite some heavy campaigning, we’re seeing support for this amendment and is on track to exceed the 60% supermajority required to pass.”
Amendment 4, “Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion,” just reached the threshold for a supermajority, with 60% indicting a vote of “yes,” and 32% who said “no.” Eight percent of respondents said they did not know.
“Since campaigning has picked up against the amendment, support for abortion protection has dropped from 69% of likely voters back in July,” Binder commented. “Now, just barely reaching the 60% it needs to pass, it looks like the fate of abortion in Florida will come down to turnout on Election Day.”
Respondents were also asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the US Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which held that the U.S. Constitution does not protect the right to an abortion. Forty-six percent of respondents said they disagreed with the decision, either strongly or somewhat, while 42% said they agreed with it. Eleven percent said they didn’t know, and 2% refused to answer.
When asked about their personal stance on abortion policy, 56% of respondents said they describe themselves as pro-choice, while 34% said they were pro-life, and 7% said they fall somewhere in between. Two percent said they don’t know or refused to answer. Among registered Democrats, 82% said they were pro-choice and 9% pro-life, while 59% of Republicans said they were pro-life, and 34%
pro-choice. Among independents, 59% said they were pro-choice, and 29% pro-life.
“It’s interesting that a majority of independents and over a third of Republicans identify as pro choice,” said Binder. “Even more, 24% of people who said they are pro-life also said they would vote ‘yes,’ on Amendment 4. Now, some might say that’s just confusion about the ballot summary language, but we see the same thing among pro-lifers when 29% said they disagree with the Dobbs decision.”
Respondents were also asked their level of trust in both the U.S. Supreme Court and the Florida Supreme Court. Of the two, respondents indicated more overall trust in the Florida Supreme Court, with a total of 55% who said they trust the Court either a lot or some, and 38% said they have little or no trust at all. In comparison, 50% said they trust the U.S. Supreme Court, with 49% who indicated distrust.
“Trust in the courts is above water, both for U.S. and Florida Supreme Courts,” Binder stated. “Of course, Republicans are much more trusting of the ideologically aligned bodies.”
Methodology
The UNF PORL Florida Statewide Poll consists of a random sample of 977 likely Florida voters, and was conducted from October 7 through October 18, 2024, by landline and cell phone numbers, was sourced from the September 2024 Florida voter file. A voter was included in the sampling frame if they had voted in any of the 2016, 2018, 2020, or 2022 general elections, or the 2020, 2022, or
2024 primary elections.
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