If the “Vote Yes on 4” Pro-Abortion Amendment gets approved by the Florida Supreme Court, liberal groups around the country will make Florida ground zero for the 2024 election.
Why? If the left can make a red state like Florida amend its state constitution to more closely resemble perenially-blue states such as California and New York, it will be a huge win for Democrats.
Poll numbers show former President Donald Trump with an advantage over incumbent President Joe Biden on top domestic issues such as immigration and the economy, but Trump loses by double digits to Biden on the issue of abortion.
“Game changer for Trump in Florida? Not sure yet, but it will motivate Democrats to get out and vote,” said Steve Vancore from Vancore Jones Communications in Tallahassee.
The group pushing for the amendment is Floridians Protecting Freedom. Its Pro-Choice allies, the ACLU and Planned Parenthood have helped them raise over $17 million in funding to get the initiative on the 2024 ballot.
Some conservatives downplay the abortion initiative, claiming the 60% threshold they will need to get it passed will be an uphill battle. A poll from November of 2023 conducted by the University of North Florida showed 62% of those surveyed said they would vote for the pro-abortion amendment, including 53% of registered Republicans.
Pro-Life organizations know if the amendment makes it on to the state ballot, it will be a major battle. Groups like Florida Right to Life and the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America have said the ballot initiatives are passing in conservative-leaning states because abortion activists are cloaking misleading words in their amendments.
In front of the Florida Supreme Court, State Attorney General Ashley Moody argued that the ballot language failed to explain what ‘viability,’ ‘health,’ or ‘healthcare provider’ means.
In the exit polling of 2022, analysts pointed out that abortion played a role in why the GOP failed to have a “red wave” in the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate.
Republican consultants said too much of the conversation was focused on the economy and inflation while abortion was ignored and allowed Democrats to drive the narrative that Republican were too extreme following the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade.
Will 2024 be a repeat for Republicans like it was in 2022? Pro-Life groups say Republicans must get out in front of the abortion issue and define the extremist views of the liberal left.
If the abortion amendment makes its way onto the state ballot, Florida’s top issue may not center around the economy or immigration but instead will become another popular social issue that has existed since the 1970’s.
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