In 2020, Florida had a census undercount that cost the state one, potentially two, congressional seats and resulted in a loss of federal funding that will range from $11 billion to $21 billion by the end of the decade, according to a new report by Florida TaxWatch.
“A census undercount impacts the state at large; however, the consequences felt by the healthcare industry are some of the most severe. The undercount limits the accuracy of critical data used in planning services and determining allocations for large federal programs,” said Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro.
Healthcare providers use census data to identify areas with growing demands. Amid an undercount, projected populations may be larger than anticipated, resulting in expensive expansions or new constructions that cannot keep pace with growth. Service gaps can emerge, especially if certain populations, such as childbearing aged women or elderly populations, are not properly identified.
Among all federal programs, TaxWatch says Medicaid is most vulnerable to a census undercount. Matching dollars for Medicaid are set at a rate based upon population count. The program has no funding cap, meaning a more favorable rate could result in more dollars returned to a state. As the costliest program in the state budget, the smallest discrepancies in the census count can cost Florida taxpayers millions of dollars.
The estimated loss of matching Medicaid dollars is $2.3 billion and that’s only the tip of the spear. Other health-related programs are also affected, but without socio-economic data, it is hard to estimate the full extent.
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said, “Looking ahead to the 2030 census, it is critical Florida works toward a complete and accurate count of all people living in Florida to effectively maintain the delivery of healthcare services. An accurate statewide count is important to securing the state’s deserved share of federal funding and compiling accurate data with which to plan for the health care needs of Floridians.”
