A new study has revealed that Orlando had Florida’s largest increase in fatal crashes and the seventh most dangerous metro area in the nation to drive during Autumn.
Car accident experts at Auto Accident Team analyzed fatal crash data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2013 to 2022 to determine which areas were the most dangerous to drive in the fall. They compared the total number of fatal crashes for fall against the total in summer in each area. Metro areas with populations over one million were compared for a more representative comparison.
Orlando had Florida’s largest increase in fatal crashes from summer to fall, at 12.4%. Nationally, Orlando ranked seventh. Between 2013 and 2022, 671 fatal crashes were recorded in summer and 754 in fall.
Tampa was second in Florida and ninth in America, with fatal crashes increasing by 11.7% into fall. There were 961 summer crashes and 1,073 fall crashes.
Miami ranked third in Florida and twelfth nationwide. Fatal crashes were 9.5% higher in fall, with 1,495 in summer and 1,637 in fall.
Jacksonville was Florida’s safest large metro area and ranked nineteenth nationally. From summer to fall, fatal crashes increased from 502 to 530, a 5.6% increase.
Raleigh-Cary, North Carolina, had America’s largest increase in fatal crashes from summer to fall. Raleigh-Cary saw a 20.3% increase in fatal crashes between the seasons, 20.8 percentage points above the national average of a 0.5% decrease. There were 266 fatal crashes overall in summer and 320 in fall.
Austin, Texas, was third nationally, with a seasonal increase of 15.3%. Between 2013 and 2022, there were 528 fatal crashes on Austin’s roads in summer and 609 in fall.
Washington, D.C., ranked tenth for fatal crash increase in fall. Fatal crashes increased from 913 to 1,019 from summer to fall, an 11.6% increase.
New York City, New York, ranked eighteenth, with a seasonal increase of 5.9%. Summer had 2,205 fatal crashes and fall had 2,335.
Atlanta, Georgia, was twentieth, with a 5.4% increase from summer to fall. Overall, Atlanta recorded 1,579 crashes in summer and 1,665 in fall in the 10 years analyzed.
Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, was twenty-first, with a 5.1% increase, and Houston was twenty-fifth, with a 3.4% increase.
Buffalo, New York, had America’s largest seasonal decrease in fatal crashes for a metro area with more than 1 million population. From summer to fall, fatal crashes decreased by 27.9%, 27.4 percentage points below the national average. Between 2013 and 2022, 215 fatal crashes happened in the summer months and 155 in the fall months overall.
“Fall driving can always be tricky compared to summer,” Leo Danconia, CEO of Auto Accident Team, said. “The weather gets colder and wetter, and the days get shorter. These all make collisions on the road more likely. “We wanted to determine which areas of America were the worst at handling the seasonal change. For metro areas with more than one million population, we found Raleigh-Cary, North Carolina, had the largest increase, and Buffalo, New York, had the largest decrease.”
Sources:
- 2013-22 Fatality Analysis Reporting System, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
- 2023 Population Estimates, United States Census Bureau
Methodology:
- Data on fatal crashes from 2013 to 2022 (01/01/2013 to 31/12/2022) were obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Population data for states and metro areas were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Fatal crashes were filtered by the time of year and in which state or metro area (combined statistical area) they occurred.
- The total number of fatal crashes for each area for each season was divided by 10 to find the yearly average number of crashes in each season.
- To find the worst areas to drive in fall, the percentage difference was found from the average number of fatal crashes that occurred in fall to the average number of fatal crashes that occurred in summer. Areas were ranked by this figure.
- For more representative comparisons, metro areas were separated by population into three categories: large, medium, and small. Large metro areas have populations of over 1 million, medium metro areas have populations greater than 500,000 but less than 1 million, and small metro areas have populations less than 500,000. Metro areas were then ranked within these categories.
Data is correct as of October 1, 2024.
