In 2022, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis endorsed 30 school board candidates. Over 80% of them won their primary and general elections.
For the 2024 primary only, the Governor endorsed 23 different school board candidates, including several who opposed incumbents in districts where demographics and past election data indicated the odds were heavily in favor of re-election for sitting board members.
Out of the 23 endorsed, at least 11 lost their races.
While it’s true that DeSantis’ win-to-loss margin was smaller than in 2022, the losses occurred in districts where conservatives have rarely enjoyed success, including the Democratic stronghold of Palm Beach and the blue sections of Hillsborough (Tampa) and Pinellas (St. Petersburg). Ironically, some of those candidates would be considered to have a fighting chance because of DeSantis’ notable feat of flipping Hillsborough and other formerly blue counties to red during his landslide victory two years ago over Charlie Crist. In Pinellas County, School Board District 1 votes county-wide.
Members of the Florida media view Tuesday’s primary results as a rejection of pro-DeSantis education policies. In more liberal districts, that would be correct. However, there were other factors that contributed to the loss of some of the candidates the governor backed.
In 2022, the Democrats and the teachers’ unions ignored the red wave that occurred at the local school districts. Parents were angry over COVID policies and the drop in school grades from the lockdowns, and newly formed groups such as Moms for Liberty highlighted issues that resonated with parents statewide.
But all of that changed after 2022. After Florida Democrats admitted they had no chance of picking up seats at the state house and senate level, they decided to regroup and focus on local school races. Their partners, the Florida Education Association, the state’s largest teachers union, also stepped up their game to avoid another round of embarrassing defeats as they suffered in 2022.
In districts where incumbents were leading, the governor’s endorsement helped increase the turnout numbers for challengers of the incumbents.
In Duval County, local Moms for Liberty leader and conservative candidate Becky Nathanson challenged Cindy Pearson, the incumbent board member. Pearson was backed by the local Democratic Party and the teacher’s union. Weeks before the race, polling showed Pearson with a 7-point lead over Nathanson. Soon after the DeSantis endorsement, Nathonson’s numbers improved. Ultimately, Nathanson lost, but only by 2%.
The DeSantis endorsement did help increase the number of candidates who lost, but consultants told Florida Daily that DeSantis’ endorsements came out after the initial batch of absentee ballots were mailed to voters.
“If the governor would have come out earlier and endorsed these candidates before the vote by mail began, we might be looking at more wins,” a consultant told Florida Daily.
Despite Nathanson’s loss, the other DeSantis-endorsed candidates who won helped flip the Duval County school board to Republican control.
“It’s a pendulum,” consultant Jamie Miller said. “Years where Democrats win, Republicans get their act together and win in the next election. It happens on both sides.”
Before Democrats and the media decide to take a victory lap, November is still around the corner, and the governor still has candidates he supports on the general ballot.
