If you look at the 11 most populated states, there are three blue states – California, New York, and Illinois, three Red states – Florida, Ohio, and Texas, and five swing states – Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan.
The Blue States have Democratic governors and both the state house and senate are controlled by Democrats. The Red States are completely controlled by Republicans. In the swing states, it should not be a surprise that there is a mixture in each state with four of these states having Democratic governors, and four have Republican house and senate control. The caveats are Georgia, which has complete republican control, Pennsylvania which has only a GOP-controlled senate, and Nevada which has a GOP governor, but both the senate and house are controlled by democrats.
When combining the political makeup of these states, it is clear that swing states are at or a little above the national averages for unemployment and gross domestic product growth (GDP). Red States lead the nation in both low unemployment and GDP growth, while blue states are a drag on the economy far exceeding unemployment rates for the nation and falling well below the national average for GDP growth.
Putting the national economic “recovery” in perspective, as we get closer to election day, Biden will march out national statistics like “for the first time since 1960, there have been two years, 2022 and 2023, where the unemployment rate was below 4 percent.” This is a true statement, but the devil is in the details. It isn’t a national economic recovery, it is a Red State Recovery.
The truth is, national figures have nothing to do with Biden’s failed economic policies and have everything to do with conservative economic principles being applied in Red states, specifically, Texas and Florida.
Looking at the unemployment and GDP by these 12 states, you can clearly see how the blue and Red states with the largest populations are pulling the economy and unemployment rates in opposite directions with blue states being a drag on the economy while Red states are fueling the economy.
For the most part, swing states are at the national average except for Georgia which is a “Red controlled state” and beats both the national unemployment and GDP figures, and Nevada which is a little bit of an outlier because they have the highest growth in GDP in the 4th quarter of 2023. When that happens, it also tends to skew unemployment figures because in a boon, many people move to the boon area and don’t find work right away. So, this graph shows swing state averages with and without Nevada. I also excluded the third largest Red and blue states so you can see the comparison of Florida/Texas vs. California/New York. These four states represent 37.3 percent of the national GDP.
When you compare these four states, you can clearly see the “Red State Recovery” that is driving national economic indicators.
Florida/Texas’ unemployment rate is an average of 3.5 percent while California/New York’s average is 4.85 percent. This is an even larger indicator of the drag New York and California have on the economy when you realize that California/New York is 18.1 percent of the U.S. population and Florida/Texas is 15.1 percent. The national unemployment rate is 3.9 percent.
The numbers get even worse when you compare the four with GDP. Florida/Texas’ GDP growth is an average of 4.8 percent while California/New York’s average is just 2.8 percent. The national average is 3.4 percent, and you can clearly see that positive aspects of the economy are being driven by positive economic activity in Red states.
It is pretty clear that Republicans are doing something right in states while Democrats are heading in the wrong direction.
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