The Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) Center for Political Strategy released the initial findings from its Q4 2024 Statewide General Election Poll, which will be presented in detail at the AIF Fall Political and Policy Retreat in Orlando.
The AIF Center for Political Strategy poll shows former President Donald J. Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 5 points, 51-46%, which is larger than his 2020 margin of victory in Florida.
In the race for U.S. Senate, Senator Rick Scott leads former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 7-points (51-44%) with 5% of voters undecided.
Economic issues remain top of mind for Florida voters with inflation (23%) and property insurance costs (23%) ranking as the most important issues currently facing Floridians followed by housing costs (12%) and illegal immigration (10%) as the only other issues to break double digits.
The political environment favors Republicans with voters preferring a generic Republican candidate for state legislature over a generic Democratic candidate by a 50-45% margin.
Republicans perform better than Democrats on a majority of issues facing the state, including the economy (48-27%), reducing inflation/everyday costs (43-28%), crime (48-23%), education (41-37%), and protecting personal freedoms (47-42%). A plurality of voters (34%) believes neither party is doing an effective job lowering property insurance costs – one of the top issues in the state.
As of September 2024, the current statewide voter registration shows 13,679,704 total active registered voters in Florida. Republicans lead with 5,385,554 (39%) followed by Democrats with 4,359,354 (32%) and Independents with 3,934,796 (29%). Since the 2020 voter registration book closing, Republicans have seen a net gain of +187,128 voters while Democrats and Independents have seen net losses of -963,919 and -61,826, respectively.
The AIF Center for Political Strategy has been closely monitoring Florida electoral trends through regular statewide polling, strategic legislative district polling, and focus groups throughout the state. For additional information on AIF’s Center for Political Strategy, visit aif.com/political.
METHODOLOGY: The AIF Center for Political Strategy poll was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. The sample size for the survey is 1,200 registered likely general election voters in Florida. Interviews were collected via landlines, cell phones, and SMS/text messaging to web. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at a 95% confidence interval. Interviews were conducted September 23-25, 2024. Percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding.
