As of December, there are almost 50 members of Congress not running for reelection in 2026.
The current count is 47. There are more Republicans (27) than Democrats (20) who will not be running next year. Some are retiring, others, like Florida Congressman Byron Donalds, have announced they are seeking higher office.
Both sides are expected to spend big dollars to obtain and maintain control.
According to a new political forecast, the 2026 elections are expected to be most expensive midterm in U.S. history.
Travis Trawick, CEO of FullPAC, a leading nonpartisan campaign technology provider, predicts political ad spending in the 2026 congressional race could hit $10.8 billion, a 21% increase over the last midterm cycle in 2022.
While slightly less than the total spent during the 2024 election cycle, political ad spending for the House is projected to reach $2.2 billion – marking the first time the chamber has surpassed $2 billion. This is a 27% increase over the 2024 cycle and a 40% jump over the 2022 cycle.
U.S. Senate races are expected to reach $2.8 billion in 2026, slightly surpassing the record total for the 2024 election cycle and up nearly 21% over the 2022 midterms.
Some states, such as California, are projected to see $1.1 billion in ad spending, making it the top spending state for the 2026 cycle. Other top states include those with multiple statewide races or a critically competitive House landscape. Florida, Georgia, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, and Texas are expected to see nearly $500 million or more in total ad spending ahead of the midterms.
The report shows advertisers expected to spend $2.5B on CTV, the fastest-growing media type. The battle for Congress with House and Senate races projected to total $5 billion, nearly half of all cycle spending.
Trawick says there’s already been an early spending surge, where $900 million has already been spent, pacing well ahead of 2023 and 2021.
