In this week’s series of polling data published by the James Madison Institute (JMI), today’s story is on how the 2026 Florida governor GOP candidates fare against each other.
In 2025, when Casey DeSantis’ name was mentioned as a possible contender, she outpaced every other candidate. But for this poll, her name wasn’t included, since she hasn’t entered the race.
The JMI poll surveyed 1,200 registered Florida voters. Among Republicans who were polled, Republican Congressman Byron Donalds leads the race, bolstered by support from President Trump.
In the Republican primary (among likely Republican voters): Byron Donalds holds 33%, Lt Gov. Jay Collins 15%, former Florida State House speaker Paul Renner with 9%, and James Fishback with 3%, with 40% of voters polled stating choosing “Undecided.”
JMI says President Trump’s influence is notable, and when Floridians are polled about which candidate the President likely endorsed, only 29% believe he endorsed Donalds, and 48% are unaware.
In that same poll, 63% say endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate (36% much more, 27% somewhat), with 28% unaffected and 4% less likely.
“This polling landscape portrays Donalds as the current frontrunner, with Trump’s endorsement serving as a significant booster once voters know about the nod from the President. Undecided segments offer room for campaign shifts, particularly as primaries approach,” said the JMI poll.
In a matchup for the Democratic nomination for governor, former Congressman David Jolly received 31% support, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings 23%, 2% indicated they would not vote, and 44% were unsure.
Among likely voters (those very or somewhat likely to participate), when asked about the general election, Donalds garners 41%, Jolly 36%, while independent Jason Pizzo gets 6%, and 17% of voters remain undecided/other, yielding a +5 margin for Donalds.
