A new poll of Florida’s gubernatorial race shows Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holding a narrow two-percentage-point lead over Democrat David Jolly, despite a projected Republican turnout advantage.
The YouGov survey found Donalds receiving 47% support among likely voters, compared with 45% for Jolly. Another 7% of respondents were undecided, while 1% supported another candidate and 1% said they did not intend to vote in the governor’s race.
The survey suggests Donalds has not yet consolidated support among voters who back President Donald Trump, contributing to the close contest.
Notably, the poll’s sample includes significantly more Republicans than Democrats. Republicans account for 45% of likely voters surveyed, compared with 31% who identify as Democrats. The remaining respondents identify as independents or members of other parties.
That represents a 14-percentage-point Republican advantage in the survey, exceeding the GOP’s 11.4-percentage-point advantage in statewide voter registration.
Despite the Republican-heavy sample, the survey shows Donalds and Jolly separated by just two points, highlighting the potential importance of undecided voters and support from independents as the November election approaches.
St Pete Polls Shows Jolly, Donalds Tied
Jolly and Donalds are tied at 45% support in a new St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics, marking the second consecutive poll from the firm showing a close race for Florida governor.
The latest survey gives Donalds a slight advantage of just one-tenth of a percentage point before rounding. Another 4% of respondents support other candidates, while 7% remain undecided with less than four weeks remaining before the November election.
Both major-party candidates have gained approximately one percentage point since the firm’s mid-September poll, which showed Donalds leading Jolly 44% to 43%.
Meanwhile, the share of undecided voters has declined from 9% in September to 7% in the latest survey.
