A new poll from the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida of likely voters across Florida shows potential Republican gubernatorial candidates Casey DeSantis and Byron Donalds with equal leads over their Democratic counterparts, David Jolly and Jerry Demings. Respondents were also asked about their vote choice for Florida Attorney General and U.S. Senator from Florida, as well as a number of policy issues affecting the state.
Voters in the 2026 midterm election were asked to choose between one Democrat and one Republican candidate for governor in a series of head-to-head matchups. Based on prior polling numbers, Republican candidates include Casey DeSantis and Byron Donalds, with David Jolly and Jerry Demings for the Democrats. With 47% of the vote in both cases, DeSantis came in 13 points ahead of Jolly (34%), and 11 points ahead of Demings (36%). The Donalds matchups had a nearly identical spread, his 45% putting him 11 percentage points over Jolly (34%), and 12 points over Demings (34%).
“We’re still a year away from the midterm election, and there are quite a few undecided voters,” said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and professor of political science. “At this point, it looks like both Republicans are more than 10 points ahead of whoever emerges on the Democratic side.”
Regarding the race for U.S. Senator from Florida, 49% said they would support Republican incumbent Ashley Moody if the election were held today, with 38% supporting Democrat Jennifer Jenkins. Ten percent said they don’t know who they’ll vote for. When asked who they would vote for if the election for Attorney General were held today, 45% of respondents said Republican incumbent James Uthmeier, with 36% indicating a vote for Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez, and 14% undecided.
“In both the Senate and Attorney General races, folks are generally voting along party lines. In a state that has gotten more red with every election cycle, Uthmeier and Moody have the added benefit of incumbency,” commented Binder. “Moody likely enjoys a bit of extra name recognition, too, after gaining some national attention for replacing now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate.”
Respondents were also asked what they believe is the most important problem facing Florida today. The top response was housing costs with 14%, followed by property insurance (12%), and property taxes (11%). The economy and jobs were also high on the list with 11%, as were political division and polarization with 10%.
“Concerns over housing and all of its associated costs, namely property taxes and insurance, have really come to the forefront over the past few years,” Binder stated, “and that’s across party lines. It seems like one thing Florida voters can all agree on is that the rent—or mortgage—is too damn high.”
Next, respondents were given a list of people and institutions that serve as general sources of information, and asked to indicate whether they think the information they provide is mostly true (being accurate), mistaken (but trying to be accurate), or lies (intentionally misleading). Medical research scientists were reported to be the most truthful, with 47%. CNN media figures had the greatest
percentage, indicating they mostly lie with 43%, just beating out Fox News media figures with 39%. When asked about Donald Trump, 42% of respondents said they think the information he provides is mostly truthful, while 39% said it is mostly lies. Twelve percent said they think Trump is mostly mistaken.
“These numbers reflect the decreasing trust in media we’ve seen in recent years, with CNN perceived as bigger ‘liars’ than Fox News among registered Republicans, and the reverse among Democrats,” Binder said. “When it comes to the president, 71% of Republicans think he mostly tells the truth, and 12% will allow that he’s mistaken, but 9% say the information he gives is mostly lies.”
Respondents were also asked if they think the Department of Justice should publicly release all the files associated with the Jeffrey Epstein case, to which an overwhelming majority said yes (83%), they should. Just 9% said they should not, and 8% said they don’t know. In a related question, respondents were asked whether they approve or disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case, to which 32% expressed approval, either strongly or somewhat, and 57% disapproved. Respondents were also asked how likely it is that President Donald Trump is criminally involved in the Jeffrey Epstein case, to which 45% said it is at least somewhat likely, and 43% said it is unlikely.
“The Epstein case has been a hot-button issue of late, and it’s not shocking to see that people want the DOJ to release the files, or even that they disapprove of the handling of the case,” said Binder. “What’s interesting is that 12% of respondents who reported having a favorable opinion of Trump also said it is at least somewhat likely he is criminally involved in the Epstein case. While that’s not a huge number, a sizable chunk of his supporters have suspicions, but are supporting him despite them.”
When asked how they think Donald Trump is handling immigration in the United States, 54% said they approve, either strongly or somewhat, with 44% indicating disapproval. Regionally, approval is highest among respondents in north Florida, and rural areas, and lowest in south Florida, and urban areas.
Respondents were also asked if they would support or oppose proposed legislation that would allow a terminally ill patient, for whom two physicians have determined has under six months to live, the right to request and receive a prescription for medication to end their life. This would only be an option for patients who are acting voluntarily, capable of making their own healthcare decisions, and are able to self-administer the medication. The percentage of respondents who said they would support the proposed bill (63%) was more than twice that of those who expressed opposition (28%).
Next, respondents were asked if they support or oppose the state of Florida removing all childhood vaccination mandates. Nearly two-thirds of Floridians oppose, either strongly or somewhat, the proposed policy change. About half of respondents (48%) said they oppose it strongly, and another 14% oppose it somewhat. About a third of the sample supports removing vaccine mandates, either strongly (20%) or somewhat (14%).
“Florida’s surgeon general is following RFK Jr.’s lead in the fight against vaccines, but it doesn’t appear there’s much support among Florida voters,” commented Binder. “As you might expect, support was much higher among people who like RFK than those who don’t. A little more surprising is that even among people who said they think medical research scientists are mostly lying, 46% oppose getting rid of vaccine requirements, with 52% in support.”
Additionally, respondents were told that local governments in Florida receive about $40 billion in revenue from property taxes annually, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Local Government Finances (ALFIN), all of which goes to local governments across Florida. When asked if they support or oppose eliminating property taxes for homeowners in Florida, 49% said they either strongly or somewhat support, with 43% opposed.
“Interestingly, support for getting rid of property taxes are roughly the same between homeowners and renters,” Binder stated. “I guess renters understand that extra expense tends to trickle down, and with housing costs at the very top of the list of Florida problems, everyone is feeling it.”
Finally, respondents were told that for criminal convictions that result in the death penalty, under certain circumstances, a new Florida statute allows any method of execution that has not been deemed unconstitutional. They were then asked what method of execution should be the default for Florida. Respondents who volunteered that they do not support the death penalty were treated as “refusals” in this analysis, but are reported in the crosstabs. The top response for dthe efault method of execution was lethal injection, with 55%, followed distantly by firing squad (6%) and electrocution (6%).
“This bill slipped under a lot of people’s radar, quietly taking effect this summer,” Binder said. “Now keep in mind, no method of execution has ever been deemed unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court, so this leaves the door open to other methods, including firing squad, beheading, and yes, even stoning.”
For the full survey results, please see the crosstabulations below.
Methodology
The UNF PORL Florida Statewide Poll consists of a random sample of 728 likely voters, and was conducted from October 15 through October 25, 2025, by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida. Questions about the Attorney General and Senate races were sponsored by Florida Watch, and the medical aid-in-dying question was sponsored by Florida End-of-Life Options. The sampling frame, consisting of phone numbers, was sourced from the September 2025 update of the Florida voter file. A voter is considered “likely” if they voted in any of the following elections: the 2020, 2022, or 2024 primaries, or the 2022 general election. Respondents who said they would “probably not” or “definitely not” vote in the 2026 midterm election were screened out of the survey. To ensure a representative sample, the 10 Florida designated media market areas (DMAs) were stratified by geography and urbanicity into 18 different strata, with Miami-Dade County separated into its own stratum due to its unique population. Surveys were conducted in English and Spanish.
Respondents were contacted by live callers via telephone between 5 to 9 p.m. Monday through Friday and 1 to 5 p.m. Saturday, with up to three callbacks attempted. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 40-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, asked for the listed voter by name. If they reached the wrong person, or if the listed voter was not available, the interview was terminated. The response rate of this study was 3.3%, using the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation.
The weighting process had two steps: All data were weighted by educational attainment, followed by partisan registration, age, race and ethnicity, sex, and geographic strata to match the population of active likely voters in Florida. Geography, partisan registration, sex, race and ethnicity, and age weights were created from the Florida Voter File. Education weights were calculated using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) 2023 5-year estimates for individuals 25 years of age and over, with those under 25 receiving an education weight of one. All weights were calculated and applied using the SPSS version 27 rake weighting function and are assigned a weight of one if any of the weighting variables is missing. The overall margin of sampling error is +/-4.25 percentage points, including estimated design effect due to weighting. Estimates for smaller subpopulations have larger margins of error, indicating greater uncertainty in the data. It is important to note that sampling error is just one of many potential sources of error. This and all other public opinion research is susceptible to unmeasured, real-world error.
PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social, and cultural projects. PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, PORL’s goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the
conduct of survey and public opinion research. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or (904) 620-2784.
About University of North Florida The University of North Florida is a nationally ranked university located on a beautiful 1,381-acre campus in Jacksonville surrounded by nature. Serving nearly 17,000 students, UNF features six colleges of distinction with innovative programs in high-demand fields. UNF students receive individualized attention from faculty and gain valuable real-world experience engaging with community partners. A top public university, UNF prepares students to make a difference in Florida and around the globe. Learn more at www.unf.edu.
