A new report released by Florida TaxWatch continues to examine if Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years.
On its forecast, TaxWatch used several contributing factors, including population and net migration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism, to forecast Florida’s economy through 2030.
The key takeaways from the report include the following outliers.
Population and Net Migration: Florida’s population is projected to increase by about 1.45 million people (to 24.8 million) from 2025 to 2030. Although the state’s overall population is projected to continue to increase, the number of people moving to Florida each day is projected to decrease. This reflects a shift in the balance between people moving into Florida due to an abundance of natural amenities, low cost of living, and no personal income tax, and people moving out of Florida to states like Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina.
Employment: There are not enough unemployed Floridians to fill all of the current job openings. The number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from 9.9 million in 2024 to 10.6 million in 2030. During this same period, Florida’s unemployment rate is projected to increase from 3.5 percent in 2024 to 3.9 percent in 2026 and then decrease to 3.6 percent in 2030. The projected unemployment rate for 2025 as of Q3 2024 is 0.4 percentage points higher than reported in Q2 2024.
GDP and Income Growth: Florida had a real GDP growth rate of 3.5 percent in 2024; however, it is projected to decrease to 3.0 percent by 2030. The difference between the growth rate of Florida’s GDP and the real GDP is becoming smaller. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to decrease in the coming years. Unlike the projections in Q1 and Q2 of 2024, Q3 2024 studies show that the spending capabilities of Floridians will gradually decline or stay stagnant in the coming years.
Tourism: Florida’s tourism is projected to increase steadily through 2028, and Florida’s tourism industry is projected to continue its strong growth through 2030, with more visitors expected each year. Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and is responsible for $76.4 billion in employee wages. Due to the revenue tourism generates, every Florida household saves $1,910 a year on state and local taxes.
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