The most likely result of Tuesday night’s New Hampshire Republican primary is further wind behind former President Trump’s sails
According to The Boston Globe, a tracking poll conducted among 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters over two days shows Trump holding a dominant lead in the polls. If these polls are accurate, Trump is on track to win the Republican nomination without a serious contest.
The same source also mentions that according to the FiveThirtyEight average of New Hampshire polls, Trump is about 13 points ahead of his top rival, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley.
However, it’s always worth noting the day before a
Critically important presidential primary that the polls are not definitive, and there is always a margin of error to consider.
As Florida lawyer John Lawlor mentions, “Polls can be useful predictors but they shouldn’t influence our actual behavior. In a democracy, the key is actually getting out to vote.”
As to the actual issues in the New Hampshire Republican primary, the most important ones revolve around the candidates’ appeal to independent voters, their stance on important policies such as immigration, and the strategic balance between attracting different voter groups.
According to the Associated Press, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley is seeking to win over independent voters without alienating those who previously supported Donald Trump. This highlights the significance of appealing to a broad range of voters, including independents who make up almost 40% of the state’s registered voters.
Immigration has emerged as a truly crucial issue for some voters in the primary, as reported by ABC News. The stance of the candidates on this issue is likely to influence voter support. What has become crystal clear over the past weeks is that the strategic challenge of balancing appeals to different voter groups, such as independents and traditional Republican voters, is a key issue in the primary. The difficulty faced by candidates in navigating the preferences of Trump supporters and independent voters can’t be understated.
As for the potential impact of the results on Tuesday night leading to one or more candidates dropping out, there are indications that some candidates might reconsider their campaigns based on the outcome.
The same FiveThirtyEight average mentioned earlier shows Haley trailing Trump by a significant margin, which could potentially influence the future of her campaign. The Hill also reported that New Hampshire is considered Haley’s last, best shot, indicating that the results of the primary could have a significant impact on her campaign’s viability.
From where I sit, New Hampshire is much closer to the end of the end than the beginning of the end.
The most recent polls indicate that the 2024 Republican primary is indeed one of the most lopsided (and, I would add, most boring) in recent history.
According to The New York Times, former President Trump’s lead is more than double the largest margin of victory for a Republican in a competitive previous primary. The NBC News/Des Moines Register poll of Iowa found Trump up 27 points, and similar leads are reported in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
In other words, these are not normal times and this is not a normal race. With literally hours to go before New Hampshire, all that’s left is a final push from the candidates to get more media time, then we can all sit in front of our screens to be unsurprised.
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