Some of the biggest beneficiaries of that growth are counties such as Polk, which is located near major metro areas including Tampa and Orlando and has a lower cost of living in comparison.
Florida increasingly is relying on in-migration as deaths outpace births. The state is one of 17 where deaths are outpacing births.
Morby said the biggest question now is whether population growth will continue to stabilize after the spike seen during the pandemic.
Housing could be one indicator to watch. Single-family housing values in Orange County decreased 2.1% between June 2025 and June 2026.
Hank Fishkind, president of Fishkind Consulting, previously told OBJ people have been moving to states such as North Carolina and Tennessee because of lower costs.
“Our population growth is consistent with levels that were considered recessions in the past,” Fishkind said. “If we have much lower population growth, it makes our economy slow down.”
At the same time, changes in federal immigration policies have contributed to a decrease in international migration into Florida.
That slowdown could have broader economic implications, affecting labor supply, consumer spending and home sales in the regional economy.
