New polling data by The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll and Noble Predictive Insights, shows that if former president Trump is convicted of a felony before the election, 84% of his supporters will still vote for him.
Nine percent of Trump voters said they were undecided if Trump was convicted. Another 5% said they’d vote for a third-party candidate, and 2% said they’d support Biden.
Thirty-five percent of likely voters believe Trump most likely will be convicted of a felony but a plurality of voters (45%) doesn’t believe Trump will be convicted. 20% not sure.
By political party: 57% of Democrats believe he will be convicted. 23% said he won’t be, 19% not sure. Republicans, (14%) say Trump will be convicted, 66% said no conviction and 20% were undecided.
David Byler of Noble Predictive Insights said the big concern for Trump isn’t the verdict itself, “the issue is his character. Biden tends to beat Trump on questions of character – around honesty, trustworthiness and other personal virtues,” said Byler.
The latest Fox News poll shows Trump over Biden by 5 points; other polls show a dead heat.
Though Biden’s job approval numbers remain low, in February, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Biden and Trump statistically tied among registered voters. However, the poll also showed that if Trump were criminally convicted, 51 percent said they would leave Trump and support President Biden. Trump’s vote percentage would drop to 45%.
Criminal charges against Trump have helped shore up his base, but pollsters have said in a general election, a Trump conviction could benefit Biden’s reelection campaign, especially among independent voters.
