With the IRS tax filing deadline just days away, more than one-third of Americans still haven’t submitted their returns.
According to a new Rasmussen Reports national survey conducted via phone and online, 51% of U.S. adults say they have already filed their income taxes. Another 28% plan to file by the April 15 deadline, while 7% expect to request an extension. Fourteen percent remain unsure about their plans.
When it comes to tax outcomes, 39% of respondents expect to receive a refund from the IRS—an increase from 36% in April of last year. Meanwhile, 23% anticipate owing money, 21% believe they will break even, and 17% are unsure.
A majority of early filers—55%—say they expect a tax refund, while among those planning to file by the April 15 deadline, most anticipate either owing the IRS (30%) or breaking even (24%). Of those who expect to owe, 12% plan to request an extension.
Republicans (59%) are more likely to have already filed their taxes compared to Democrats (49%) and independents. They’re also more certain about their expected tax outcomes, while Democrats and unaffiliated voters are more likely to say they’re unsure whether they’ll owe or receive a refund.
The data also highlights gender and age gaps. More men (28%) than women (19%) expect to owe the IRS this year, while women are more likely to say they’re uncertain about their filing plans. Americans over 40 are more likely to have already filed, whereas younger adults—especially those under 40—are more likely to delay filing or seek an extension. Notably, just 37% of women under 40 have filed so far.
By race, 42% of white respondents, 45% of Black respondents, 28% of Hispanic respondents, and 33% of other minorities expect a refund. Whites are also the most likely to have filed already.
Married adults report higher filing rates than unmarried ones, and parents are more likely to expect a refund than those without children.
Income levels also influence tax expectations: 38% of those earning over $200,000 expect to owe money, while individuals with annual incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 are the most likely to have already submitted their returns.
The survey of 1,205 American Adults was conducted on April 2-3 and 6, 2025 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
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