The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a semi-independent agency under the US Department of Energy.
The EIA has just announced that auto owners will see a steeper decline in gas prices in 2026.
As a share of disposable income, EIA says consumers have spent about 2% less at the pump compared to the last few years.
But drivers may not have to wait till 2026 to see a drop, as gas prices in many areas saw a decline by 20 cents this summer compared to last summer.
“The good news for consumers is that we are generally seeing lower prices at the pump, and we expect gasoline prices to keep trending lower through next year,” said acting Administrator for the EIA Steve Nalley/
In Florida, some larger cities have seen the price drop in the range of $2.70-2.85 per gallon. But EIA predicts overall, the average retail price for regular-grade gasoline is expected to sit at just over $3 to $3.10 per gallon for the remainder of 2025 and drop to an average of $2.90 per gallon in 2026. EIA points out that both prices are a drop compared to the average cost per gallon, which was $3.30 in 2024.
Some of the reasons why cheaper gas could happen in 2026.
Deregulation by the Trump White House.
Increased OPEC+ Supply: The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that OPEC+ members are expected to increase oil production, which will boost supply.
Lower Consumer Spending: With lower prices, Americans are expected to spend less of their disposable income on gasoline.
A contributing factor is that oil prices, which account for more than half of what consumers pay at the pump, are expected to be down in the near term. Crude oil prices fell from $68 per barrel in August to an average of $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. Those prices are expected to drop even further to around $50 per barrel in early 2026, according to EIA projections.
